SpaceX is reportedly targeting a public listing as early as June, with estimates valuing the company at around $1.5–$1.75 trillion. If it happens, it could become the largest IPO ever, surpassing Saudi Aramco. And honestly, the excitement makes sense.
SpaceX dominates the commercial launch industry, controls the rapidly growing Starlink satellite network, and is positioning itself at the centre of the global space economy. Revenue growth has been explosive, while demand for satellite internet, defence contracts, and launch capacity continues to climb.
But markets are starting to ask a tougher question: is the valuation already too high?
At a potential $1.7 trillion valuation, investors are effectively pricing in years of near-perfect execution. That includes scaling Starship, expanding Starlink globally, and maintaining dominance against rising competition from both governments and private firms.
That does not mean the IPO is a bad investment. In fact, many investors see SpaceX as one of the most important technology companies of the next decade. But history shows that even great companies can become risky investments when expectations get too extreme.
Right now, this feels less like a question of whether SpaceX is a great business, and more a question of what price makes sense to pay for it.
So here’s the real debate: would you buy SpaceX on IPO day, or wait for the hype to settle first?
